The contest for the position of the East
Devon Constituency MP has so far been the most exciting one that there
has been locally for a long time. There are a number of reasons for this and
they are all related to how the incumbent MP and the majority Conservative
group on East Devon District Council treat
the electors and fellow Councillors.
The Constituency’s MP Hugo Swire appears to pay very little attention to
local matters, preferring instead to concentrate on his Ministerial activities.
It is rare to hear about Hugo intervening or commenting on local matters,
something that a good proactive local MP ought to do. Is Hugo
distracted by all of his Ministerial trips abroad?
Our District Council, as everyone
knows, has an overwhelming Conservative majority. As everyone will also know
the District Council has, particularly over
the past 4 years or so, been beset with an apparent indifference by the Conservative majority
group to the concerns and wishes of the electorate; those they were elected to
serve. More and more the word “arrogance”
is used when electors describe the Conservative Councillors attitude to them.
Electors who are unhappy with how the District
Council has acted on key local issues such as the failure to publish an
effective Local Plan or the outrageous shenanigans over moving the District Council’s Headquarters (the Knowle)
office have found collective ways to express their dissatisfaction. We have
seen some 4,000 residents marching in protest to the Knowle and we have seen
the creation of a number of local pressure groups including, to name but a few,
East Devon
Alliance (EDA)
http://www.eastdevonalliance.org.uk/, East Devon
Watch http://eastdevonwatch.org/ and Save Our Sidmouth http://saveoursidmouth.com/.
The main challenge to the Conservative majority group on the District Council has come from the group of Independent
Councillors, although it is the smallest grouping (7 Councillors).
Allied to the Independent Councillors group is the Liberal Democrat’s grouping
(9 Councillors). To put these two groupings into perspective, the majority Conservative group
on the District Council comprises of 42
Councillors. An overwhelming, but not an unassailable, majority.
Over recent years a head of steam has been created amongst electors who
want to see change in those who represent them, not only on the District Council, but also in Parliament; the East Devon
Conservatives. This has led to a number of exciting local political reactions.
Independents
opposed to the Conservative domination and ruination of the District Council have come together in a new local
party created for this purpose – East Devon
Alliance (EDA). This move is an attempt to create a unified
opposition at the ballot box for the District
Council elections.
Claire Wright http://www.claire-wright.org/, a
respected hard working Independent Councillor sits on both Devon County Council and East Devon District Council. Claire
is one of the Councillors on the District Council
who work hard to mitigate the worst excesses of the majority Conservative
group on it. Claire is standing as an
Independent candidate for the East Devon
Constituency in the general election.
Zorro has considered the
position of all the general election political parties/candidates within East Devon as we are now less than 10 weeks away
from the elections on 7 May and makes these observations –
Conservatives – incumbent Hugo Swire
is suffering the backlash of the appalling continuing stewardship of East Devon District Council under his Conservative
colleagues. He is also is seen to be a semi detached MP who takes little
interest in local matters. The assumption would usually be that East Devon would be a safe Conservative seat.
However, against all of this Hugo’s odds at Ladbrokes
have consistently shortened over recent months. This makes his hold on the seat
more risky by the day. A solid challenge to Hugo could provide a major
electoral upset. Ladbrokes currently give Hugo’s
odds on winning the seat at 1/8. This is not exactly a ringing endorsement!
UKIP – their candidate Andrew Chapman and the Party generally have
no public presence in the Constituency. According to the outcome of last year’s
European elections, and the more general national opinion polls, UKIP should
be giving Hugo Swire a real run for his money. Unfortunately they aren’t, because
if they were you would expect Hugo to lose votes to UKIP. You would hardly know
that UKIP
were standing in East Devon, and it has no
presence on the District Council. Ladbrokes currently give UKIP’s odds on winning the
seat at 12/1, which seems incredibly generous.
Liberal Democrats – their
candidate Stuart Mole has no profile across East
Devon. The Party, despite having 9 Councillors on the District Council, has no profile either. It is
rare to see anything in the local press or media from them. Nationally, the Liberal
Democrats look as if they will face very significant losses at the polls
on 7 May. Many people in areas such as East Devon
could have previously voted for them as a realistic alternative to voting Conservative.
Tactical voting by those who would want to support the Greens or Labour
would have previously locally bolstered their votes. The Liberal
Democrat candidate would take votes from Claire
Wright. Despite everything Ladbrokes
currently give the Liberal Democrats odds on winning the seat at 50/1.
Labour – Labour
doesn’t really exist politically within East Devon.
The Party has only just again announced that it is fielding a candidate, Steve Race, who
is a lobbyist in London and a previous political adviser. Steve Race
has been selected after the party’s previous candidate, Jessica Pearce, recently
stood down. Was this to let Steve Race step in? The Labour Party cannot in its
wildest dreams think that this is a seat where it can win, come second or even
keep its deposit. Steve Race, given his background, must see East
Devon as a stepping stone to being picked for a more winnable seat in
the future. The Labour candidate would take votes from Claire
Wright. Even against this backdrop Ladbrokes
currently give Labour odds on winning the seat at 100/1.
Greens – the Green Party
has no profile in the Constituency and in January they voted 2:1 not to field a
candidate, but more recently they are thinking about whether to change their
mind. To put up a candidate with only a few weeks to go until the election would
be a vanity decision as the Party has no chance of winning. A Green
candidate would take votes from Claire Wright.
Even against this backdrop Ladbrokes current
give the Greens
odds on winning the seat at 100/1.
Independent – East Devon has a good track record in supporting Independent candidates
on the District Council. It is disquiet with
the Conservative
District Council representatives that has created the overarching EDA which will support and field Independent candidates
across the District Council. Claire Wright has a proven record of
standing up to the Conservatives on the District
and County Council where she is a Councillor
on both. Claire Wright is standing
as a truly Independent candidate. She has been campaigning since last summer.
She has produced a manifesto which has been produced arising out of
consultation with electors.
Claire Wright is a
recognisable name within East Devon and her support
for local issues and residents has gained her valuable support and respect
across the Constituency, and across its
political divides. Claire
has driven a high profile election campaign, the success of which is reflected
in the fact that when she launch her candidature last year Ladbrokes quoted her odds on winning at a lengthy
66/1. Claire’s campaign is
buoyed by the broader local support for Independents given the anger that electors
have with the local Conservatives. Claire’s campaign
is being covered by not only local and regional press and media, but also the
national ones. Such is the interest and expectation that she could
realistically win the seat.
But to win Claire Wright
needs to garner every vote that she can. She doesn’t need those parties who
stand no earthly chance of winning the seat from bleeding her votes. Ladbrokes currently give the Claire
Wright’s odds on winning the seat at 6/1. This reflects the
anticipation that many have of her overturning Hugo Swire’s majority. Claire’s odds are also the best odds
that Ladbrokes quote for a general election
candidate standing as an Independent anywhere in the country!
It is very clear to Zorro that
there is a real chance that in East Devon a
very significant outcome could happen at the general election. A safe Conservative
seat with an incumbent MP could be lost. But it can only be lost to one person.
That is Independent Claire Wright.
To do this Claire Wright needs those
parties which occupy the centre and centre left of politics to see the bigger
picture! To see the bigger opportunity! To see the bigger goal!
In conclusion, Zorro puts
this challenge out to the Liberal Democrats, the Labour Party and the Green Party
– withdraw your candidates from standing in the general election. We have a
great local candidate in Claire Wright
who has a profile and a level of support that you and your candidates don’t
have, and can’t realistically reach before 7 May. It is time for brave
political decisions to be taken on behalf of the electors in East Devon.
Let’s make sure that the full collective force of those who want to
change our local political landscape is not dissipated. Put your support behind
Claire Wright. Let’s bring change to East Devon! Don’t let Hugo Swire get back in
because the opposition splits its vote four ways.
It’s time for change! It’s time for challenge!