A unified challenge can unseat Hugo Swire

The contest for the position of the East Devon Constituency MP has so far been the most exciting one that there has been locally for a long time. There are a number of reasons for this and they are all related to how the incumbent MP and the majority Conservative group on East Devon District Council treat the electors and fellow Councillors.

The Constituency’s MP Hugo Swire appears to pay very little attention to local matters, preferring instead to concentrate on his Ministerial activities. It is rare to hear about Hugo intervening or commenting on local matters, something that a good proactive local MP ought to do. Is Hugo distracted by all of his Ministerial trips abroad?

Our District Council, as everyone knows, has an overwhelming Conservative majority. As everyone will also know the District Council has, particularly over the past 4 years or so, been beset with an apparent indifference by the Conservative majority group to the concerns and wishes of the electorate; those they were elected to serve. More and more the word “arrogance” is used when electors describe the Conservative Councillors attitude to them.

Electors who are unhappy with how the District Council has acted on key local issues such as the failure to publish an effective Local Plan or the outrageous shenanigans over moving the District Council’s Headquarters (the Knowle) office have found collective ways to express their dissatisfaction. We have seen some 4,000 residents marching in protest to the Knowle and we have seen the creation of a number of local pressure groups including, to name but a few,  East Devon Alliance (EDA) http://www.eastdevonalliance.org.uk/, East Devon Watch  http://eastdevonwatch.org/ and Save Our Sidmouth http://saveoursidmouth.com/.

The main challenge to the Conservative majority group on the District Council has come from the group of Independent Councillors, although it is the smallest grouping (7 Councillors). Allied to the Independent Councillors group is the Liberal Democrat’s grouping (9 Councillors). To put these two groupings into perspective, the majority Conservative group on the District Council comprises of 42 Councillors. An overwhelming, but not an unassailable, majority.

Over recent years a head of steam has been created amongst electors who want to see change in those who represent them, not only on the District Council, but also in Parliament; the East Devon Conservatives. This has led to a number of exciting local political reactions.

Independents opposed to the Conservative domination and ruination of the District Council have come together in a new local party created for this purpose – East Devon Alliance (EDA). This move is an attempt to create a unified opposition at the ballot box for the District Council elections.

Claire Wright http://www.claire-wright.org/, a respected hard working Independent Councillor sits on both Devon County Council and East Devon District Council. Claire is one of the Councillors on the District Council who work hard to mitigate the worst excesses of the majority Conservative group on it. Claire is standing as an Independent candidate for the East Devon Constituency in the general election.

Zorro has considered the position of all the general election political parties/candidates within East Devon as we are now less than 10 weeks away from the elections on 7 May and makes these observations –

Conservatives – incumbent Hugo Swire is suffering the backlash of the appalling continuing stewardship of East Devon District Council under his Conservative colleagues. He is also is seen to be a semi detached MP who takes little interest in local matters. The assumption would usually be that East Devon would be a safe Conservative seat. However, against all of this Hugo’s odds at Ladbrokes have consistently shortened over recent months. This makes his hold on the seat more risky by the day. A solid challenge to Hugo could provide a major electoral upset. Ladbrokes currently give Hugo’s odds on winning the seat at 1/8. This is not exactly a ringing endorsement!

UKIP – their candidate Andrew Chapman and the Party generally have no public presence in the Constituency. According to the outcome of last year’s European elections, and the more general national opinion polls, UKIP should be giving Hugo Swire a real run for his money. Unfortunately they aren’t, because if they were you would expect Hugo to lose votes to UKIP. You would hardly know that UKIP were standing in East Devon, and it has no presence on the District Council. Ladbrokes currently give UKIP’s odds on winning the seat at 12/1, which seems incredibly generous.

Liberal Democrats – their candidate Stuart Mole has no profile across East Devon. The Party, despite having 9 Councillors on the District Council, has no profile either. It is rare to see anything in the local press or media from them. Nationally, the Liberal Democrats look as if they will face very significant losses at the polls on 7 May. Many people in areas such as East Devon could have previously voted for them as a realistic alternative to voting Conservative. Tactical voting by those who would want to support the Greens or Labour would have previously locally bolstered their votes. The Liberal Democrat candidate would take votes from Claire Wright. Despite everything Ladbrokes currently give the Liberal Democrats odds on winning the seat at 50/1.

Labour – Labour doesn’t really exist politically within East Devon. The Party has only just again announced that it is fielding a candidate, Steve Race, who is a lobbyist in London and a previous political adviser. Steve Race has been selected after the party’s previous candidate, Jessica Pearce, recently stood down. Was this to let Steve Race step in? The Labour Party cannot in its wildest dreams think that this is a seat where it can win, come second or even keep its deposit. Steve Race, given his background, must see East Devon as a stepping stone to being picked for a more winnable seat in the future. The Labour candidate would take votes from Claire Wright. Even against this backdrop Ladbrokes currently give Labour odds on winning the seat at 100/1.

Greens – the Green Party has no profile in the Constituency and in January they voted 2:1 not to field a candidate, but more recently they are thinking about whether to change their mind. To put up a candidate with only a few weeks to go until the election would be a vanity decision as the Party has no chance of winning. A Green candidate would take votes from Claire Wright. Even against this backdrop Ladbrokes current give the Greens odds on winning the seat at 100/1.

Independent – East Devon has a good track record in supporting Independent candidates on the District Council. It is disquiet with the Conservative District Council representatives that has created the overarching EDA which will support and field Independent candidates across the District Council. Claire Wright has a proven record of standing up to the Conservatives on the District and County Council where she is a Councillor on both. Claire Wright is standing as a truly Independent candidate. She has been campaigning since last summer. She has produced a manifesto which has been produced arising out of consultation with electors.

Claire Wright is a recognisable name within East Devon and her support for local issues and residents has gained her valuable support and respect across the Constituency, and across its political divides. Claire has driven a high profile election campaign, the success of which is reflected in the fact that when she launch her candidature last year Ladbrokes quoted her odds on winning at a lengthy 66/1. Claire’s campaign is buoyed by the broader local support for Independents given the anger that electors have with the local Conservatives. Claire’s campaign is being covered by not only local and regional press and media, but also the national ones. Such is the interest and expectation that she could realistically win the seat.

But to win Claire Wright needs to garner every vote that she can. She doesn’t need those parties who stand no earthly chance of winning the seat from bleeding her votes. Ladbrokes currently give the Claire Wright’s odds on winning the seat at 6/1. This reflects the anticipation that many have of her overturning Hugo Swire’s majority. Claire’s odds are also the best odds that Ladbrokes quote for a general election candidate standing as an Independent anywhere in the country!

It is very clear to Zorro that there is a real chance that in East Devon a very significant outcome could happen at the general election. A safe Conservative seat with an incumbent MP could be lost. But it can only be lost to one person. That is Independent Claire Wright. To do this Claire Wright needs those parties which occupy the centre and centre left of politics to see the bigger picture! To see the bigger opportunity! To see the bigger goal!

In conclusion, Zorro puts this challenge out to the Liberal Democrats, the Labour Party and the Green Party – withdraw your candidates from standing in the general election. We have a great local candidate in Claire Wright who has a profile and a level of support that you and your candidates don’t have, and can’t realistically reach before 7 May. It is time for brave political decisions to be taken on behalf of the electors in East Devon.

Let’s make sure that the full collective force of those who want to change our local political landscape is not dissipated. Put your support behind Claire Wright. Let’s bring change to East Devon! Don’t let Hugo Swire get back in because the opposition splits its vote four ways.

It’s time for change! It’s time for challenge!